The Turk is Walking in Baltimore and Everywhere Else

For beleaguered people in the north, like the friend who posted the following on Facebook, "really want to see some greenery," spring is just barely on the horizon. For the spring training aficionado it is almost over. That was evident at the Orioles ball site yesterday. The O's had started the spring with 68 on the roster and all 68 were in the dugout on opening day. Yesterday, 48 survivors suited up in the sparkling home whites instead of the training jerseys and at of that 48, twenty-three knew that AAA Norfolk or AA Bowie awaited the services of the luckier ones.

The question, of course, is always who gets to go to Baltimore when the O's open their season against the Yankees in just about 10 days. Manager Dave Trembley and his staff have some issues to resolve, the most glaring being the pitching rotation and the bullpen. The starting eight looks to be serviceable although some would say they have the wrong Izturis at shortstop and I had to chuckle when I say Felix Pie trip on his own feet chasing a ball in left field.

The games on the field still don't matter much but the players are going out there knowing that the coaches, scouts and supervisors are watching every ball hit in their direction, every at bat and, for pitchers, every pitch thrown. At the end of each game from now to opening day, several messages will be delivered in various ways. Cutting away manager-speak, here is what 22 guys will hear. Matt Wieters is the 23^rd for an entirely different reason.

You have been optioned to (fill in the blank). That is not bad. For three seasons, if a player is on the 40-man roster but not on the active major league roster he may move between the major league club and any of the minor league affiliates. That can be a strategic move. The Marlins consider Anibel Sanchez their fifth starter but, given days off, they will not need him until April 18^th. They might well start his season in New Orleans to be able to give some other player a longer look. . Earlier this week, the Orioles optioned LHP Chris Waters to Triple-A Norfolk. Waters is close to being a career minor leaguer. He was a 5^th round draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2000 but he got his first cup of major league coffee only last season. He started 11 games, turned in a 3-5 record 5.01. That did not win him a shot at the rotation. But last year, he was 8-6 in 22 minor league starts, including being 5-0 for AA Bowie. On an Orioles team that has Adam Easton penciled in as the number 3 starter and Hayden Penn in the number 4 slot, if Chris is able to hold his own or better in AAA, he will be back in Baltimore sooner, rather than later.

We want you to report to the minor league camp tomorrow. That is not good for older players, not that bad for the real young guys. Usually that means you did not make the 40-man roster, but you have a place in our organization. On Wednesday, the O's reassigned RHP Brad Hennessey to minor league camp. Brad was a #1 pick in the 2001 draft, selected by the Giants. In October, he and his lifetime 4.60 ERA were sent outright to the Giants Fresno farm. Employing the privilege of a 5-year veteran, he declined and signed a one-year minor league contract with the Orioles. Brad thinks he is young enough to try again. Given the shakiness of the Orioles starting rotation, I am sure he is thinking that he has a chance to earn another shot at the bigs.

We are designating you for assignment. That is the MLB equivalent of "we will announce that you are leaving to pursue other interests." Closely related to that is "You are being released." That is usually delivered with the thought that "this will make it easier for you to find your own deal." For a player who is going to be fired, being fired earlier is better than being fired later of course. Those who are released early still have a chance to be invited to another team's camp to compete for a minor league slot. Josh Bard comes to mind. He got cut late by the Red Sox and is still shopping as I write this.

The Matt Wieters Story. Matt is the top rated prospect for the Orioles and, for many, the #1 in baseball. Baseball America ranks him #2 behind David Price and John Sickles calls him the #1 hitting prospect in MLB. But on opening day, Greg Zaun will be behind the plate and Chad Moeller will likely be the backup. The O's haven't announced whether Wieters will start in Bowie or Norfolk, but it will not be at the home grounds. Wieters will start in the minor leagues so that the team can postpone the agonies of free agency for another year. They will talk about seasoning, wanting him to see more pitches, giving him a chance to play every day, but that is a load of hooey. What they have in mind is this -- Players with at least two but less than three years of Major League service, who are considered to be in the top 17% of all players, are eligible for arbitration one year sooner than the rest. These are known as "Super 2" players. Super 2's, must have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year. Wieters will join the team as soon as there are 85 days left in the season unless the Orioles get off to a miraculous start and/or Zaun breaks down.

Finding Value in Camden Yards

Have you ever been on an airplane and noticed that, as soon as it lands, most people jump up and get very antsy until they are able to leave the plane (and even angry if there is a delay in opening the doors)? They are acting out an Economic principle.

In classical economics, value is seen as a combination of price and utility – in other words, how much money a buyer is willing to exchange for a good or a service is dependent on how useful the buyer perceives the good or service to be. What baffles economists is how to measure the value of time – in other words how much time will a person expend in order to achieve a result.

We perceive a value in getting from one place to another quickly and we pay accordingly to fly in an airplane. Once we have reached our destination, we no longer see value in sitting idly on the transport, so we rush to get out and go about our business.

Today’s question is what our expectation of value is when we invest in a season ticket or simply invest the time to care about how a team competes. I am guessing there is a limit to how much time we are willing to spend on that team and that limit manifests itself in how soon we leave a game, whether we show up at all near the end of the season and, importantly to the owner, our propensity to renew our real investment in the tickets.

I thought of all of that today as I am getting ready to sit among Orioles fans, many of whom timed their late winter escape from Baltimore to watch the start of what they hope will be the resurgence of their team, but what is very likely to be another disappointing season. I just do not know how they can compete in the AL East with the questions that surround the rotation. Is Koji (penciled in as the #2 starter) another Dice K? Does Hendrickson have enough left to be the #4 and are they kidding with Brad Hennessey at #5?

There is a saying in baseball – every team knows they are going to win 54 games and lose 54 games. It is what you do with the third 54 that counts. The question is -- where is the value?

The minimum expectation is 54. But, losing 108 games is rare and clearly not acceptable. The MLB record in the modern era is 119 losses (Detroit Tigers – 2003). The modern era NL had three teams lose 111 (1941 Phillies, 1963 Mets, 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks).

No one is going to be spending time and money, even at the superior right field barbecue stand at Camden Yards, on a team that is on track to win 54.

At the other end of the standings, Casey Stengel was once quoted as saying, “The Yankees don't pay me to win every day, just two out of three." Even George $teinbrenner did not really think that. It is a rare team that wins 108. The Mariners and the Cubs hold the single season record, both won 116, the Mariners in 2001, the Cubs in 1906.

How about 81? If, as some say, baseball is a game of failure, then breaking even is probably a good thing. Last year, the lower wild card team, Milwaukee, won 90. The Dodgers won 84 in the woeful NL West to get into the playoffs

Maybe based on that, we ought to go with 81 wins as a respectable outcome, worthy of continued fan support. But, not all 81 wins are the same. Here is what would have happened had we taken the team that came closest to 81 wins and promoted them to that level in 2008.

In the American League East, with 81 wins Baltimore would have still finished in last place. In the Central, 81 wins would have tied Kansas City with Cleveland for 3rd place, a reachable until the end, 7.5 games out of first. In the West, 81 would have been two more wins for Texas, but they would still have finished in 2nd place, but the Angels would have been looking over their shoulders.

In the National League East, 81 wins for Atlanta would have kept them where they were, behind the Marlins. In the Central, give Cincinnati 81 wins and they still trail St. Louis and lead only the Pirates. But, in the West, the 81 wins would have put Colorado just a game behind the D-Backs, still in third place, but keeping us interested until the end.

What that tells me is that wins alone are not a good measure of value. I think we need to factor in another statistic to account for the division in which a team plays. My candidate is Number of Games in Contention. In other words, at what point does a team step on the brake, shed the big dollar contracts and start calling up the AA kids to play catch in the bigs.

For some teams the throw-in-the-towel date comes as early as the All-Star break, for others in might be sometime in August. For the Marlins, for example, it was about the second week in September. This is not the date when the team is eliminated mathematically; it is a more subjective, but fairly obvious, measure. Except for the handful of players playing for incentives or for next year’s appearance before the arbitrator, everyone else is operating at three-quarter speed, hoping to avoid a late-season injury that would interfere with their planned trip to Las Vegas.

Sorry, Orioles fans, that date is more likely to be earlier, rather than later this year.

Mike Berardino writes about Matt Wieters in today’s South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Weiters, the next phenom who is meant to save the Oriole franchise is a catcher from Georgia Tech. He is the number one prospect in the Baseball America top 100 and John Sickels writes, “If you can find a serious flaw in Matt Wieters, plese let me know because I can’t find any.”

Berardino says, in today's article, “Informed estimates have that debut coming sometime around June 1.” That is good enopugh for me to call it the beginning of the out of contention season for the O’s. From then on, you will be able to walk up to Oriole Park at Camden Yards and buy a good ticket at the box office, not two blocks away from the guy in the dirty raincoat.