The Turk is Walking in Baltimore and Everywhere Else

For beleaguered people in the north, like the friend who posted the following on Facebook, "really want to see some greenery," spring is just barely on the horizon. For the spring training aficionado it is almost over. That was evident at the Orioles ball site yesterday. The O's had started the spring with 68 on the roster and all 68 were in the dugout on opening day. Yesterday, 48 survivors suited up in the sparkling home whites instead of the training jerseys and at of that 48, twenty-three knew that AAA Norfolk or AA Bowie awaited the services of the luckier ones.

The question, of course, is always who gets to go to Baltimore when the O's open their season against the Yankees in just about 10 days. Manager Dave Trembley and his staff have some issues to resolve, the most glaring being the pitching rotation and the bullpen. The starting eight looks to be serviceable although some would say they have the wrong Izturis at shortstop and I had to chuckle when I say Felix Pie trip on his own feet chasing a ball in left field.

The games on the field still don't matter much but the players are going out there knowing that the coaches, scouts and supervisors are watching every ball hit in their direction, every at bat and, for pitchers, every pitch thrown. At the end of each game from now to opening day, several messages will be delivered in various ways. Cutting away manager-speak, here is what 22 guys will hear. Matt Wieters is the 23^rd for an entirely different reason.

You have been optioned to (fill in the blank). That is not bad. For three seasons, if a player is on the 40-man roster but not on the active major league roster he may move between the major league club and any of the minor league affiliates. That can be a strategic move. The Marlins consider Anibel Sanchez their fifth starter but, given days off, they will not need him until April 18^th. They might well start his season in New Orleans to be able to give some other player a longer look. . Earlier this week, the Orioles optioned LHP Chris Waters to Triple-A Norfolk. Waters is close to being a career minor leaguer. He was a 5^th round draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2000 but he got his first cup of major league coffee only last season. He started 11 games, turned in a 3-5 record 5.01. That did not win him a shot at the rotation. But last year, he was 8-6 in 22 minor league starts, including being 5-0 for AA Bowie. On an Orioles team that has Adam Easton penciled in as the number 3 starter and Hayden Penn in the number 4 slot, if Chris is able to hold his own or better in AAA, he will be back in Baltimore sooner, rather than later.

We want you to report to the minor league camp tomorrow. That is not good for older players, not that bad for the real young guys. Usually that means you did not make the 40-man roster, but you have a place in our organization. On Wednesday, the O's reassigned RHP Brad Hennessey to minor league camp. Brad was a #1 pick in the 2001 draft, selected by the Giants. In October, he and his lifetime 4.60 ERA were sent outright to the Giants Fresno farm. Employing the privilege of a 5-year veteran, he declined and signed a one-year minor league contract with the Orioles. Brad thinks he is young enough to try again. Given the shakiness of the Orioles starting rotation, I am sure he is thinking that he has a chance to earn another shot at the bigs.

We are designating you for assignment. That is the MLB equivalent of "we will announce that you are leaving to pursue other interests." Closely related to that is "You are being released." That is usually delivered with the thought that "this will make it easier for you to find your own deal." For a player who is going to be fired, being fired earlier is better than being fired later of course. Those who are released early still have a chance to be invited to another team's camp to compete for a minor league slot. Josh Bard comes to mind. He got cut late by the Red Sox and is still shopping as I write this.

The Matt Wieters Story. Matt is the top rated prospect for the Orioles and, for many, the #1 in baseball. Baseball America ranks him #2 behind David Price and John Sickles calls him the #1 hitting prospect in MLB. But on opening day, Greg Zaun will be behind the plate and Chad Moeller will likely be the backup. The O's haven't announced whether Wieters will start in Bowie or Norfolk, but it will not be at the home grounds. Wieters will start in the minor leagues so that the team can postpone the agonies of free agency for another year. They will talk about seasoning, wanting him to see more pitches, giving him a chance to play every day, but that is a load of hooey. What they have in mind is this -- Players with at least two but less than three years of Major League service, who are considered to be in the top 17% of all players, are eligible for arbitration one year sooner than the rest. These are known as "Super 2" players. Super 2's, must have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year. Wieters will join the team as soon as there are 85 days left in the season unless the Orioles get off to a miraculous start and/or Zaun breaks down.

The Orioles Crush the Dominican Republic

Random thoughts from today's game, my first World Baseball Classic match.

The Supporters of the WBC are right: It was fun to watch what amounts to an all star team. Hanley Ramirez ended up playing shortstop so that Michael Tejada could play third, so that ARod could have a hip cyst specialist in Colorado look at his hip.

None of the rabid, Dominican fans seemed to miss him. They were just so excited to see their players. They got just as excited when Juan Berito came over to sign autographs as they did when Miguel Tejada did the same.

The Oriole pitchers may be better than I thought: Koji Uehara started the game for the Os, pitched two innings and all they got out of him sere singles by Tejada and Tavares. Tavarez led off with a sharply hit single followed by a Juan Bautista bunt sacrifice (who said you can't bunt your way off the island?). Uehara promptly got Hanley Ramirez to pop up behind second base. Big Popi was next and after the Dominican fans went crazy, Ortiz hit a long ball that Nick Markakis had no trouble chasing down. After Tejada singled to open the second, Uehara got Guillen to pop to the first baseman and struck out Aybar and Cruz.

In fact, the only DR run came when Bob McRory walked Tavares (on base all four times, two singles, a walk and hit by a pitch). Bautista's single mved him to third and he scored when Hanley hit into a 5-4-3 DP - one of 4 hit into by the DR.

Felipe Alou is 74 Years Old: But he carries himself like a 90 year old. But, he has his trusty sidekick, Luis Pujols with him as Bench Coach. Does anyone remember Pujols' 55-106 year managing the Tigers? Or, the time they batted out of turn?

30 MLB GMs May Not be Right: Pedro Martinez pitched two credible innings. OK. It was against the Orioles and he did throw 19 pitches in each inning, and his first inning was weak -- after Tejada mysteriously let a pop fly drop in front of him, Scott pounded a long fly to left. Pie and Zaun then each stroked an RBI single. Pedro settled down after that, got Jolbert Cabrera and Dave Roberts to fly out peacefully. His second inning was better. After walking Adam Jones, he struck out Markakis and Gomez while Huff popped into left. All in all, he may just be someone's 5th starter

Spring Training Has Arrived

The game was a gift to the players struggling to find a roster spot, thanks partly to the World Baseball Classic. With Melvin Mora and Cesar Izturis leaving for the WBC, the O’s decided to go whole hog and field a second string team, a rarity on opening day. Ty Wigginton was at 3rd for Mora, Chris Gomez at short for Izturis, Ryan “Fragile” Freel at 2nd for Brian Roberts, and some forgettable stranger at 1st for Aubey Huff.

Fragile Freel did OK. He singled, stole second and scored in his first at bat. Later he went into the hole for an “all pro” stop and he did not get hurt.

Many of us who play Strat-o-Matic or who otherwise participate in some fantasy league or another know all about Freel. We draft him in the hope that we were going to enjoy his break out year, and watched him he lose 30 games here and 60 games with various ailments, breaks and blisters..Maybe the air in Baltimore and the heady atmosphere in the cellar of the AL East will be just what he needs. For Strat players, he is not a good choice. He had 131 at bats for Cincinnati last year and his card projects to be only about at the top of the third third, based on productivity. Wigginton saw about three times the number of at bats and his rating puts him much higher, just below the top 30%, but well behind Mora. His versatility will ensure him a lot of playing time.

Dave Tremblay said afterwards that he sent the starting infield to a back field to practice together more intensely. He thought they need more time together before the left side of the infield leaves camp for the WBC. I guess he had no confidence that his pitchers would force enough ground balls. He was right – the first three Oriole pitchers were candidates for the 4th and 5th rotation spot. Brad Hennessey tightened up and complained about elbow soreness, so he had to be pulled in the 2nd inning (after walking the first two batters) and both David Pauley and Chris Waters did not, I am being charitable, show their best.

The commissioner’s office is looking at the trend of not playing a full roster of starters in spring games. He wants MLB to show their best even if the games do not count. Wait, maybe he plans to award a wild card spot to the teams with the best Cactus and Grapefruit League records. A league official told me that the problem is that the $17-million dollar auto salesman turned team owner turned owners’ commissioner cannot police and punish, so it is not the toughest rule they have.

And, knowing that, the Mets did not bring Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Delgado to Fort Lauderdale. I guess they did not want to charter a second bus nor risk having their big money guys on I-95.

Nevertheless, you would have thought that the Orioles were the visiting team, even if the infield had played. There were many more Mets fans in the stands than there were Orioles boosters. And, despite the more or less plausible explanation for changing the infield, there was no explanation for the missing outfielders – Pie and Markakis. Only Adam Jones (two strikeouts, a walk and a nice catch) and Greg Zaun started. Zaun is going to feel his aches and pains – he is the only catcher on the 40-man roster. There are seven others on the invitee list, so Zaun got the rest of the day off after three at bats.

One of the seven, Robby Hammock, hit a major league double and then huffed and puffed his way into a tag at third. Not the sort of thing a 31-year old who was commuted between Phoenix (the Diamondbacks) and Tucson (AAA) since 2003 wanted to do in his next best shot at more than a cup of coffee.

Actually, it is sort of bittersweet to watch those Spring Training Invitees. Some of them have real futures – younger minor leaguers who are not yet on the 40-man rosters but are invited to at least start the spring season with the big team and show what they can do before getting their minor league assignment. Mike Antonini, a 25-year old pitcher in the Mets camp is one of those – he was drafted out of college in 2007 and reached AA last year.

The other categories are the older guys with the minor league contracts who are trying to find their way onto the 40-man roster, if not among the 25 actives, for one more payday. Most of them should be home looking for a high school coaching job or, if these were normal times, a gig selling cars. But, here they are, taking their cuts and hoping to hang on. When you see a familiar name, with a number on their uniform in the sixties, it is hard not to root for them. On the Met’s side there were Bobby Kielty, trying to get back to the majors despite hitting .228 at Pawtucket last year and Rob Mackowiak, trying again after hitting a robust .132 with Washington. Familiar names like John Parrish and Jolbert Cabrera were in Orioles white. But, the most stunning was Danys Baez who has not started a major league game since 2002.


Every team has its older guy mascot – someone who shows up every year to help with the coaching and to give the fans a twinge of nostalgia. A few years ago, Johnny Pesky was autographing his book before a Red Sox spring game. Red Schoendienst is a fixture in Jupiter when the Cardinals are there. The O’s long time legend Elrod Hendricks used to fill that role until his death in 2005. It was nice to see Mike Cuellar sitting with pitching coach Rick Kranitz. Kranitz must have been wondering if Cuellar had some heat left.

Tomorrow, I am off to Ft. Myers to see the Twins and whoever the Yankees send down I-75 to play them.

Finding Value in Camden Yards

Have you ever been on an airplane and noticed that, as soon as it lands, most people jump up and get very antsy until they are able to leave the plane (and even angry if there is a delay in opening the doors)? They are acting out an Economic principle.

In classical economics, value is seen as a combination of price and utility – in other words, how much money a buyer is willing to exchange for a good or a service is dependent on how useful the buyer perceives the good or service to be. What baffles economists is how to measure the value of time – in other words how much time will a person expend in order to achieve a result.

We perceive a value in getting from one place to another quickly and we pay accordingly to fly in an airplane. Once we have reached our destination, we no longer see value in sitting idly on the transport, so we rush to get out and go about our business.

Today’s question is what our expectation of value is when we invest in a season ticket or simply invest the time to care about how a team competes. I am guessing there is a limit to how much time we are willing to spend on that team and that limit manifests itself in how soon we leave a game, whether we show up at all near the end of the season and, importantly to the owner, our propensity to renew our real investment in the tickets.

I thought of all of that today as I am getting ready to sit among Orioles fans, many of whom timed their late winter escape from Baltimore to watch the start of what they hope will be the resurgence of their team, but what is very likely to be another disappointing season. I just do not know how they can compete in the AL East with the questions that surround the rotation. Is Koji (penciled in as the #2 starter) another Dice K? Does Hendrickson have enough left to be the #4 and are they kidding with Brad Hennessey at #5?

There is a saying in baseball – every team knows they are going to win 54 games and lose 54 games. It is what you do with the third 54 that counts. The question is -- where is the value?

The minimum expectation is 54. But, losing 108 games is rare and clearly not acceptable. The MLB record in the modern era is 119 losses (Detroit Tigers – 2003). The modern era NL had three teams lose 111 (1941 Phillies, 1963 Mets, 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks).

No one is going to be spending time and money, even at the superior right field barbecue stand at Camden Yards, on a team that is on track to win 54.

At the other end of the standings, Casey Stengel was once quoted as saying, “The Yankees don't pay me to win every day, just two out of three." Even George $teinbrenner did not really think that. It is a rare team that wins 108. The Mariners and the Cubs hold the single season record, both won 116, the Mariners in 2001, the Cubs in 1906.

How about 81? If, as some say, baseball is a game of failure, then breaking even is probably a good thing. Last year, the lower wild card team, Milwaukee, won 90. The Dodgers won 84 in the woeful NL West to get into the playoffs

Maybe based on that, we ought to go with 81 wins as a respectable outcome, worthy of continued fan support. But, not all 81 wins are the same. Here is what would have happened had we taken the team that came closest to 81 wins and promoted them to that level in 2008.

In the American League East, with 81 wins Baltimore would have still finished in last place. In the Central, 81 wins would have tied Kansas City with Cleveland for 3rd place, a reachable until the end, 7.5 games out of first. In the West, 81 would have been two more wins for Texas, but they would still have finished in 2nd place, but the Angels would have been looking over their shoulders.

In the National League East, 81 wins for Atlanta would have kept them where they were, behind the Marlins. In the Central, give Cincinnati 81 wins and they still trail St. Louis and lead only the Pirates. But, in the West, the 81 wins would have put Colorado just a game behind the D-Backs, still in third place, but keeping us interested until the end.

What that tells me is that wins alone are not a good measure of value. I think we need to factor in another statistic to account for the division in which a team plays. My candidate is Number of Games in Contention. In other words, at what point does a team step on the brake, shed the big dollar contracts and start calling up the AA kids to play catch in the bigs.

For some teams the throw-in-the-towel date comes as early as the All-Star break, for others in might be sometime in August. For the Marlins, for example, it was about the second week in September. This is not the date when the team is eliminated mathematically; it is a more subjective, but fairly obvious, measure. Except for the handful of players playing for incentives or for next year’s appearance before the arbitrator, everyone else is operating at three-quarter speed, hoping to avoid a late-season injury that would interfere with their planned trip to Las Vegas.

Sorry, Orioles fans, that date is more likely to be earlier, rather than later this year.

Mike Berardino writes about Matt Wieters in today’s South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Weiters, the next phenom who is meant to save the Oriole franchise is a catcher from Georgia Tech. He is the number one prospect in the Baseball America top 100 and John Sickels writes, “If you can find a serious flaw in Matt Wieters, plese let me know because I can’t find any.”

Berardino says, in today's article, “Informed estimates have that debut coming sometime around June 1.” That is good enopugh for me to call it the beginning of the out of contention season for the O’s. From then on, you will be able to walk up to Oriole Park at Camden Yards and buy a good ticket at the box office, not two blocks away from the guy in the dirty raincoat.

Opening Day -- Spring Training

The first game of the spring training season is tomorrow and I will be in Seat 9, Row I, Box 13 to watch the Mets visit the Orioles.

I am (or should be) a Marlins fan, Right? I live in Marlin country; I have a 41-game ticket plan; I went to the Holiday Party and the Fan Fest. So, why am I opening the season watching the hated Mets, who will fall apart in September and lowly Orioles, a team that most observers think will lose 100 games?

One reason is that Marlins management put their tickets on sale one week later than did most of the other teams and with Orioles selling tickets and the Marlins not selling tickets, I went for it.

Yes, the economy is bad and attendance might be down and I could have waited a week. But, when things are tough, baseball seems to rise up. I have read about how, in World War II, FDR encouraged MLB to keep playing because baseball was essential for the morale of the nation. And, it was from the mound in Yankee Stadium that President Bush rallied New York after September 11th.

So, the Marlins lost me for opening day because I did not want to miss out on opening day. Did I mention that the Orioles play in a park about 20 minutes from home and the Marlins and Cardinals about a half hour further up the road? The hated Mets play a half hour beyond and another 20 minutes or so was that great shrine to spring training, the now disused Dodgertown at Vero Beach. I am going to miss going there. It was a fairly new, great ballpark in a historical setting.

Another reason why I was not all that keen to wait for the Marlins is that too many Marlins will be absent at the beginning of the spring season because they are playing on various national teams in the World Baseball Classic, an abortion of a tournament held to maximize the disruption to the US season.

From the Fish Stripes blog “Florida's biggest marquee attraction this year is All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who will be participating on the Dominican Republic squad. Closer Matt Lindstrom will represent Team USA. Mexico's squad will feature all-purpose Alfredo Amezaga and third baseman Jorge Cantu. Venezuela will have a couple of Marlins pitchers, starter Anibal Sanchez and reliever Renyel Pinto. And, Rick VandenHurk will play for the Netherlands.

That is not all bad – a lot of the younger guys will get more early playing time, but it does blunt the attraction somewhat. While Cantu is gone, we will get a good look at Gaby Sanchez, touted as the 1st baseman of the future and Emilo Bonifacio might get some playing time at shortstop.

But over and above the opportunities provided to some of the kids, The WBC creates an injury risk and, Team USA is handicapped, for example, by Jeter’s situation.

Mark Feinsand who writes about the Yankees for the NY Daily News (an odd newspaper, the sports writers are fluent in proper English, the front page writers can barely spell their own names) quoted Yankee manager Joe Girardi (another Marling management mistake) talking about Derek Jeter’s sore hamstring, “"It's awful early to be playing meaningful games. Is his hamstring bad? No. It's a little sore. Guys are going to go through sore periods during this time in spring training. That's why we do this before we start playing games."

Another reason for not liking the WBC – the Asian teams have been assembled and practicing for six weeks. The Latin American teams are coming off their winter seasons and their own regional championship. Team USA? They just got to camp last week.

But opening day is opening day and I will be there and when whoever sings the National Anthem comes to near the end and hits the “Oh,” I will shout with all the Baltimore boosters “O” and when the man in blue yells “Play Ball!,” I will sit back, sip my beer and get ready for another great season.

And, I will get to the Marlins later in the spring.